Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc149…da10 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$84 (-4%) realized −$59 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate82%18W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.7% -12.9% 82% 5% -7.3%
≤30d 22 -3.7% -12.9% 82% 5% -7.3%
≤90d 22 -3.7% -12.9% 82% 5% -7.3%
all 22 -3.7% -12.9% 82% 5% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 5% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 0% -16.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -24.3%
20% -35.8% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses18 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 99¢ 72¢ $89 $65 −$25 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$3 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $71 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $161 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $89 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $88 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $47 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $175 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $235 −$121 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $81 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $126 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $204 +$14 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $253 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $34 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $56 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $71 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $87 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.71 · official $61.99 · 107 history records