Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc14c…3d54 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$632 (-25%) realized −$635 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$299
sports 33% −$181
crypto 18% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.6% +11.9% 70% 70% -13.1%
≤30d 10 +23.6% +11.9% 70% 70% -13.1%
≤90d 32 -14.6% -22.8% 41% 41% -38.0%
all 32 -14.6% -22.8% 41% 41% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 41% -38.0%
10% -30.1% 41% -43.9%
15% -36.9% 34% -49.4%
20% -43.1% 34% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$67 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$635
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage58d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 47¢ 48¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Panama 57¢ 60¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$15 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $82 +$99 +121%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $106 +$96 +91%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $33 +$21 +63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$5 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $34 +$36 +108%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $26 +$25 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 24 $235 −$235 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $405 −$405 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $7 +$29 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $122 +$78 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 05 $48 +$58 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 04 $103 +$85 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $52 +$48 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 01 $52 +$48 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $109 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $49 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $48 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 13¢ $74 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 26¢ $11 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $37 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $45 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $61 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $106 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY 61¢ $33 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $34 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $26 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 50¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $63 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $235 51d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 40¢ $20 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 52d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 52d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 40¢ $51 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $36 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $61 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $86 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up $5 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.53 · official $456.40 · 82 history records