Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C1 0xc14e…3315 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$335 (+39%) realized +$336 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$330
other 46% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.0% +5.8% 50% 50% +16.4%
≤30d 16 +17.0% +5.8% 50% 50% +16.4%
≤90d 16 +17.0% +5.8% 50% 50% +16.4%
all 16 +17.0% +5.8% 50% 50% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 50% +16.4%
10% -4.3% 50% +5.2%
15% -13.5% 50% -4.9%
20% -22.0% 50% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$41 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$336
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $42 −$37 -87%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $91 +$100 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $45 −$44 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 −$43 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $40 +$43 +109%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $70 −$68 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $49 +$40 +82%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $91 −$89 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $43 +$54 +127%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $75 +$86 +114%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$69 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $96 +$52 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 30¢ $42 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $45 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 11¢ $10 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $91 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $3 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 19¢ $10 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $40 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $9 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $50 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 12h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 16¢ $1 24h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 29¢ $10 24h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 63¢ $47 25h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 49¢ $38 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $76 27h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 29¢ $51 27h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $43 28h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $75 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $49 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.94 · official $26.94 (match) · 36 history records