Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc14f…d094 crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-18%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%91W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$6
politics 35% −$83
sports 3% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 48% -31.3%
≤30d 143 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 48% -31.3%
≤90d 143 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 48% -31.3%
all 143 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 48% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 48% -31.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 8% -37.9%
15% -29.6% 5% -43.9%
20% -36.5% 4% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses91 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records