Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc150…e85f sports 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,083 (-5%) realized −$9,083 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate79%223W / 59L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$648per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$48
14 days−$945
30 days−$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$9,982
crypto 11% +$506
other 4% +$252
economics 0% −$13
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.0% -19.5% 78% 0% -17.4%
≤30d 41 -6.3% -15.3% 83% 0% -35.2%
≤90d 143 -3.3% -12.5% 87% 8% -11.7%
all 282 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 22% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 22% -14.1%
10% -20.0% 12% -22.3%
15% -27.8% 7% -29.8%
20% -34.8% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$901) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$296 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,083
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses223 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)282 / 282
History coverage173d
Avg bet$648
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 282 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $50 −$27 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $50 −$28 -55%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $66 +$1 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $48 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $90 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $90 +$1 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $911 −$911 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 19 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $90 −$2 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $85 +$2 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$1 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$19 -38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -66%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 15 $879 +$36 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 15 $861 +$16 +2%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 15 $836 +$24 +3%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 15 $801 +$21 +3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $802 +$16 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $200 +$2 +1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $980 +$82 +8%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 14 $961 +$18 +2%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $901 +$32 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 45¢ $23 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $50 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 40¢ $10 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 50¢ $13 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 98¢ $50 17h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $51 17h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 98¢ $50 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $51 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 98¢ $50 19h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Kiwoom DRX 100¢ $50 40h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 99¢ $50 41h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 100¢ $16 42h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 100¢ $50 42h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 99¢ $50 42h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 99¢ $16 42h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $101 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $100 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $92 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $90 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $92 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $90 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $49 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $48 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $91 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $90 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $91 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $90 8d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $91 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 836 history records