Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc151…2501 sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,954 (-14%) realized −$9,297 · open −$657
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%75W / 83L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,122
7 days−$1,999
14 days−$1,999
30 days−$2,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$3,765
other 37% −$7,203
world 1% +$258
crypto 0% −$35
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -21.4% -28.9% 35% 35% -35.2%
≤30d 24 -24.7% -31.9% 33% 33% -36.0%
≤90d 28 -35.5% -41.6% 29% 29% -45.6%
all 158 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 47% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 47% -23.3%
10% -25.7% 43% -30.6%
15% -32.9% 40% -37.3%
20% -39.4% 31% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$320 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$1,126
Realized−$9,297
Unrealized−$657
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses75 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage276d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $1,783 $1,126 −$657 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $300 −$203 -68%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $240 −$54 -22%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $240 −$85 -35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $300 −$68 -23%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $300 −$9 -3%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 +$248 +162%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $506 +$268 +53%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $610 +$716 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $361 +$169 +47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$116 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $504 −$500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $203 +$161 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $131 +$57 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $132 +$105 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $90 −$90 -100%
NK Slaven Belupo vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5 May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $977 −$966 -99%
Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $261 −$250 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $200 +$107 +54%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $150 +$183 +122%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $100 +$96 +96%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $160 +$102 +64%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $125 +$110 +88%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $132 +$84 +64%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Dec 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $30 +$32 +108%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $128 +$93 +72%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Dec 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will NK Celje win on 2025-12-18? Dec 18 $12 +$17 +138%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Dec 14 $87 +$65 +74%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $19 +$68 +354%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $120 −$101 -84%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $712 58m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,003 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $186 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $155 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $232 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $291 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $203 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,520 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $507 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $401 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $773 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $153 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $529 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $612 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $361 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $610 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $152 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $152 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $152 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $504 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $203 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $153 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $131 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $132 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,126.02 · official $1,126.02 (match) · 628 history records