Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc154…fe6f crypto 575 markets active 9h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-5%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%326W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$105
other 15% −$33
sports 3% −$13
world 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -5.4% -14.4% 61% 46% -15.6%
≤30d 147 -8.9% -17.5% 58% 47% -17.3%
≤90d 388 -10.2% -18.8% 56% 47% -17.0%
all 575 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 47% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 47% -16.2%
10% -25.2% 37% -24.2%
15% -32.4% 27% -31.5%
20% -39.1% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses326 / 249
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)575 / 575
History coverage99d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 575 Trades
no open positions (141 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$20 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1192 history records