Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

C1 0xc158…5cae sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$94 (-34%) realized −$93 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-30.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+14.5%	+3.6%	50%	50%	-0.2%
≤30d	3	-23.7%	-30.9%	33%	33%	-47.3%
≤90d	3	-23.7%	-30.9%	33%	33%	-47.3%
all	3	-23.7%	-30.9%	33%	33%	-47.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.9%	33%	-47.3%
10%	-37.5%	33%	-52.4%
15%	-43.6%	33%	-57.0%
20%	-49.1%	0%	-61.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$53 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.22 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized−$93

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage13d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$68	$67	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$46	+$23	+50%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$59	−$12	-21%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5?	Jun 05	$99	−$94	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$69	4m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	66¢	$46	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	59¢	$46	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	73¢	$59	2h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5?	BUY Yes	15¢	$99	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.46 · official $67.46 (match) · 6 history records