Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc159…772f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$108 (-1%) realized −$107 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,770per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$317
14 days+$317
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$317
world 12% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +44.3% +30.6% 100% 33% -6.4%
≤30d 3 +44.3% +30.6% 100% 33% -6.4%
≤90d 3 +44.3% +30.6% 100% 33% -6.4%
all 5 +23.2% +11.5% 80% 40% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.5% 40% -6.7%
10% +0.8% 40% -15.6%
15% -8.9% 40% -23.8%
20% -17.9% 40% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$260 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,770
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 +$165 +130%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,001 +$39 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,152 +$113 +2%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 11 $940 −$260 -28%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 09 $300 +$249 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $4,001 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,265 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,000 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 22h
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY No 66¢ $260 97d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? SELL Yes 34¢ $260 97d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY Yes 89¢ $680 100d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? BUY Yes 55¢ $300 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.35 · official $99.35 (match) · 17 history records