Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc15a…c990 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-9%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$147
14 days−$168
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$136
sports 39% +$56
crypto 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 49% -27.3%
≤30d 68 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -26.9%
≤90d 68 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -26.9%
all 68 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 46% -26.9%
10% -21.0% 46% -33.9%
15% -28.7% 38% -40.3%
20% -35.7% 29% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +91%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +30%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +33%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$11 +107%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$18 +360%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +80%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$27 +262%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$13 +64%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +73%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 −$52 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $16 +$4 +26%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$18 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$9 -82%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 −$36 -79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +137%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 11h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score BUY 2¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 22¢ $10 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $9 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.21 · official $25.21 (match) · 134 history records