Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc15b…def2 world 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 27% −$2
politics 8% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 17% -11.8%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 10% -9.7%
all 38 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 5% -9.8%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage452d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $47 −$9 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $19 +$3 +17%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $93 +$3 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $15 −$1 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $16 $0 -2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 2m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 2m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $47 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $14 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $47 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $13 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $15 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records