Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc15b…2548 crypto 1557 markets active 2d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%921W / 580L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$40
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$65
other 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +27.5% +15.4% 74% 74% +16.2%
≤30d 647 +8.5% -1.8% 64% 64% -2.1%
≤90d 1501 +3.7% -6.2% 61% 61% -7.0%
all 1501 +3.7% -6.2% 61% 61% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 61% -7.0%
10% -15.2% 60% -15.9%
15% -23.3% 59% -24.1%
20% -30.9% 57% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses921 / 580
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1501 / 1557
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1501 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.33 · official $1.20 · 2590 history records