Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc15b…38af
world · 46 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$76,803 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$78,500 · open +$497
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$567,175
Realized+$78,500
Unrealized+$497
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses34 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage55d
Avg bet$79,170
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$14,825
30 days+$17,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $401,950 $403,854 +$1,904 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 77¢ $98,947 $96,365 −$2,582 (-3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $64,326 $65,496 +$1,170 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,455 $1,460 +$5 (+0%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Yes 50¢ $15,000 $0 −$15,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $21,250 −$3,750 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $178,371 +$17,704 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5,577 +$870 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $17,380 +$4,620 +27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $140,102 +$9,056 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $110,505 +$10,066 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $12,370 +$3,489 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $244 +$24 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $28,888 +$926 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $15,000 −$15,000 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $53,157 +$5,012 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $364,869 −$38,192 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $110,448 +$7,246 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $4,600 −$1,100 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $431 +$15 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $29,793 −$1,428 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $82,157 +$3,517 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $118,054 +$7,157 +6%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,850 +$7,133 +386%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $13,586 +$1,830 +14%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6,269 −$3,774 -60%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $29,559 +$549 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $98,300 +$1,600 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 12 $10,500 −$3,622 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $213,744 +$4,944 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6,077 +$4,223 +70%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $89,876 +$1,631 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $48,250 +$1,750 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $4,250 +$250 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $186,160 −$2,130 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $7,873 +$177 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $184,949 +$1,719 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $18,382 +$157 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $180,069 +$4,700 +3%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 26 $91,732 +$301 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $94,810 +$383 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 24 $13,109 +$1,087 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 24 $40,800 +$135 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $24,100 +$175 +1%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Apr 23 $19,097 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $293,323 +$38,161 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $85,495 +$6,891 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 98% +$69,561
finance 1% +$23
other 1% +$9,411
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $899 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $107 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $450 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $2,750 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $2,229 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $50 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $16 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1,470 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $751 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $6 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $142 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $11,152 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $14,100 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20,550 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20,750 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $16,979 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4,058 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4,201 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $18 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8,450 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4,345 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $169 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3,950 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 23 +100.5% +81.4% 74% 22% -8.5%
≤90d 42 +57.0% +42.1% 81% 17% -7.2%
all 42 +57.0% +42.1% 81% 17% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.1% 17% -7.2%
10% +28.5% 12% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here +16.1% 7% -24.2%
20% +4.7% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567,175.27 · official $567,175.27 (match) · 2503 history records