Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc15c…b80e crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,563 (+4%) realized +$1,563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%48W / 25L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$3,391
tech 3% +$146
sports 1% −$544
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -37.3% -43.2% 53% 6% -46.2%
≤30d 44 -11.7% -20.1% 70% 39% -20.1%
≤90d 73 -8.1% -16.9% 66% 34% -19.1%
all 73 -8.1% -16.9% 66% 34% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 34% -19.1%
10% -24.8% 21% -26.8%
15% -32.1% 16% -33.9%
20% -38.7% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$340 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses48 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage71d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $2,087 −$1,260 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $684 +$33 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $3,109 −$2,247 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $1,271 −$635 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $728 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $422 −$197 -47%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 24 $503 −$503 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1,010 +$146 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $801 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $901 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $503 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $802 +$22 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $801 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $804 +$65 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $516 +$117 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $502 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1,012 +$187 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $402 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2,572 +$1,638 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $208 −$107 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$159 +51%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,005 +$146 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $504 +$67 +13%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,462 +$145 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $422 +$4 +1%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $974 +$105 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5PM ET Jun 01 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $254 +$55 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $1,027 +$612 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $905 +$68 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $103 +$54 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $101 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $52 +$22 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 27 $71 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 27 $68 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 14 $216 −$216 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 14 $103 −$38 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $146 +$74 +51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 14 $365 −$58 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 14 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 12 $1,011 +$152 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $447 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $380 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1,178 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $909 47m
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $512 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $426 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $418 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1,538 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1,153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $635 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1,240 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $205 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,157 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1,010 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $801 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $901 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records