Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc15e…afd2 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$541 (+10%) realized +$553 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$988now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$612
7 days+$480
14 days+$480
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$145
other 43% +$322
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +61.9% +46.4% 46% 46% +0.5%
≤30d 13 +61.9% +46.4% 46% 46% +0.5%
≤90d 13 +61.9% +46.4% 46% 46% +0.5%
all 16 +49.7% +35.5% 38% 38% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.5% 38% +0.1%
10% +22.5% 38% -9.5%
15% +10.7% 31% -18.2%
20% -0.2% 25% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$82 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$988
Realized+$553
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage234d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$490 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $669 −$14 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $308 −$11 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $557 −$263 -47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$3 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $406 +$201 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $355 −$102 -29%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $202 −$23 -11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$153 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $474 +$110 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Oct 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Raptors vs. Spurs Oct 27 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? Oct 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $406 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $304 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $998 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $297 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $493 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $405 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $253 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $304 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $13 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $29 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $253 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $98 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $419 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $107 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $152 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $189 4d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? SELL Yes 58¢ $180 4d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $146 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $157 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $988.08 · official $988.08 (match) · 56 history records