Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc160…5a82 world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% $0
other 16% +$4
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% −$12
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 30 +35.8% +22.9% 50% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 33 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 3% -9.4%
all 79 +10.7% +0.1% 51% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -9.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -18.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -26.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage487d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $275 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $83 −$3 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $131 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $134 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $134 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $226 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $119 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $161 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $246 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $136 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $144 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $167 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $202 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $193 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $99 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $165 −$17 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $484 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1,205 +$10 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $74 −$4 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $150 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $1,294 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2,287 +$23 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,022 +$2 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 22 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $1 $0 +22%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 01 $22 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $144 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $143 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $31 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $49 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $83 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $62 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $66 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $84 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $47 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $52 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $79 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $131 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $131 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $134 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $134 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $126 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $148 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $146 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records