Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc165…6176 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 433d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 28% +$13
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% +$1
sports 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -8.0%
10% -19.4% 2% -16.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -24.8%
20% -34.3% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage433d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 −$2 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -30%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2025? Oct 24 $3 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $17 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $16 +$1 +4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $16 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $2 $0 +9%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $14 +$1 +8%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 14 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $11 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $17 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $29 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $22 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $12 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $30 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $29 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.37 · official $29.36 (match) · 151 history records