Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc165…4150 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$6
other 27% +$1
politics 20% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 25% 12% -7.8%
≤90d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 25% 12% -7.8%
all 41 +0.2% -9.3% 22% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage283d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 +$8 +20%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $34 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $71 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 22 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $4 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $41 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $4 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $4 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $8 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $12 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $11 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $38 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $24 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $11 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $34 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $30 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $37 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $41 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $41 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $32 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 64¢ $39 30d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $31 269d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $31 269d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records