Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc166…009b crypto 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-1%) realized −$1,142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%87W / 81L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day531.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,142
7 days−$1,142
14 days−$1,142
30 days−$1,142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 45% -13.9%
≤30d 168 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 45% -13.9%
≤90d 168 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 45% -13.9%
all 168 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 45% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover531.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 45% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 43% -22.1%
15% -25.9% 33% -29.6%
20% -33.2% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$84 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses87 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage1d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day531.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $990 $0 −$990 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $411 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $197 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $460 −$152 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $255 +$87 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $162 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $152 −$45 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $285 −$73 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$65 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$54 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$66 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $254 +$26 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$36 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $152 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$16 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $231 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $180 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$31 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $258 −$56 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $94 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $92 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $76 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $188 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 741 history records