Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc169…cb6a sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$437 (+23%) realized +$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%29W / 27L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$507
other 6% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +10.5% +0.0% 52% 52% +9.5%
≤30d 56 +10.5% +0.0% 52% 52% +9.5%
≤90d 56 +10.5% +0.0% 52% 52% +9.5%
all 56 +10.5% +0.0% 52% 52% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 52% +9.5%
10% -9.6% 52% -0.9%
15% -18.3% 52% -10.5%
20% -26.3% 48% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$28 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage5d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 +$72 +112%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 +$99 +188%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $29 +$29 +99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $52 +$81 +154%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 +$40 +379%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 +$46 +80%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$17 +47%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $37 +$29 +78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $37 +$40 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 +$21 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $37 +$22 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $42 +$37 +87%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $47 +$59 +126%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$27 +66%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$66 +211%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $42 +$50 +118%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $42 +$23 +56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$52 +142%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -95%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $33 −$32 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $37 +$29 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 −$10 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$53 -95%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $37 +$26 +70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 +$26 +62%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 +$56 +215%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$23 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $36 +$20 +54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$75 +149%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 −$39 -96%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $137 43m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 25¢ $13 59m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 53¢ $52 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $53 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 24¢ $21 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $42 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $37 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $133 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $52 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $104 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $36 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $65 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $57 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 99¢ $76 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $37 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $37 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $62 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $42 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 21h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $37 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $37 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $42 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records