Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc16c…a3aa other 201 markets active 6h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24,486 (+11%) realized +$24,486 · open +$0
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%128W / 73L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,085per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,189est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,562
7 days+$5,632
14 days+$6,971
30 days+$21,331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$19,474
sports 41% −$1,090
world 2% +$2,492
crypto 1% +$1,698
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.6% -5.4% 61% 61% -1.4%
≤30d 151 +11.0% +0.5% 65% 65% +1.2%
≤90d 201 +9.0% -1.3% 64% 63% -0.1%
all 201 +9.0% -1.3% 64% 63% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 63% -0.1%
10% -10.8% 61% -9.7%
15% -19.4% 51% -18.4%
20% -27.3% 40% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,194) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$660 vs −$847 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24,486
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses128 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,085
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,332 +$2,492 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,872 +$460 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,522 +$1,611 +106%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,512 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,224 +$1,038 +32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,675 +$592 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,017 −$2,000 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,977 +$1,698 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,050 −$103 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,884 −$1,850 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,525 +$1,880 +123%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2,025 +$1,363 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,018 −$382 -38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,049 +$863 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,023 +$1,170 +58%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,011 +$585 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,014 +$614 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,031 +$2,093 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,018 +$1,023 +51%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,017 +$1,339 +132%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,000 +$731 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,216 +$925 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $1,866 +$610 +33%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,735 +$1,140 +66%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $995 +$740 +74%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $1,011 +$585 +58%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 09 $1,512 +$551 +36%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,011 +$575 +57%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $501 +$579 +116%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,015 +$1,012 +100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,016 +$1,155 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,013 +$694 +69%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,013 +$694 +68%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,010 +$526 +52%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,015 +$1,004 +99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,270 −$1,250 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,014 +$614 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $6,824 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 71¢ $4 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 71¢ $3,008 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1,320 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $4,332 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $3,871 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $3,133 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $1,012 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $510 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,512 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $511 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $2,021 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,262 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $3,224 30h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $5,268 30h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $4 31h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $4,672 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2,017 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $3,675 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $456 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1,521 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $1,518 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $1,532 38h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 37¢ $102 40h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $255 40h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $509 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $1,429 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $1,523 42h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $1,018 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records