Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C1 0xc16d…e3bf other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day7.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-11.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-2.2%	-11.5%	62%	54%	+7.5%
≤30d	13	-2.2%	-11.5%	62%	54%	+7.5%
≤90d	13	-2.2%	-11.5%	62%	54%	+7.5%
all	13	-2.2%	-11.5%	62%	54%	+7.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.5%	54%	+7.5%
10%	-20.0%	54%	-2.8%
15%	-27.7%	38%	-12.2%
20%	-34.8%	15%	-20.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -54% → late +42% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)13 / 21

History coverage3d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day7.2

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$81	+$29	+36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+50%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$60	+$20	+32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$7	+48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$7	+24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$5	+$11	+206%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	73¢	$81	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$15	10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	42¢	$10	19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	66¢	$10	21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	42¢	$10	21h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	75¢	$60	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$30	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	35¢	$8	47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$28	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	32¢	$5	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND W	BUY	2¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.60 · official $10.60 (match) · 34 history records