Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc170…3215 crypto 1782 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate88%1565W / 216L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$5
sports 0% $0
other 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 479 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 11% -10.7%
≤30d 1380 -0.4% -9.8% 89% 31% -9.2%
≤90d 1715 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 38% -9.1%
all 1781 -0.1% -9.6% 88% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 39% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1565 / 216
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1781 / 1782
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 86¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$2 -1959%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.02 (match) · 3500 history records