Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc171…285f other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+4%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 33% +$41
sports 8% $0
politics 6% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 46% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 46% 0% -9.6%
all 33 +6.5% -3.6% 42% 6% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 6% -6.1%
10% -12.8% 3% -15.1%
15% -21.3% 3% -23.3%
20% -29.0% 3% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.1 per $1 lost it wins $5.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage473d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $85 +$2 +3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $48 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $139 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $22 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele Jun 05 $1 $0 +11%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $14 $0 -3%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $49 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 10 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $12 +$42 +340%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $22 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $5 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $17 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $43 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $42 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $42 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $44 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records