Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc173…a3a5 world 30 markets active 7h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$20
world 43% −$4
finance 5% $0
other 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.0% 27% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 30 -7.1% -16.0% 23% 7% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 7% -11.1%
10% -24.0% 7% -19.6%
15% -31.3% 7% -27.4%
20% -38.1% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage520d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $84 −$5 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $101 −$18 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $98 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $294 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $293 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26? Feb 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Everton win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? Feb 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 25 $12 $0 -0%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 24 $8 $0 -2%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Jan 22 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $30 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $30 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $38 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $38 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $34 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records