Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc17d…2134 sports 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,615 (+5%) realized +$1,615 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%128W / 85L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$308est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,660
7 days−$273
14 days−$1,977
30 days−$1,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$603
other 5% +$291
crypto 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -42.1% -47.6% 37% 37% -14.2%
≤30d 70 -17.4% -25.3% 53% 53% -16.6%
≤90d 192 -4.8% -13.9% 59% 59% -7.0%
all 213 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 60% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 60% -6.9%
10% -20.1% 59% -15.8%
15% -27.8% 58% -23.9%
20% -34.9% 57% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$107 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses128 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$308
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage98d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $452 −$447 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $151 −$149 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $50 −$50 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $235 −$235 -100%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $623 −$623 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 28 $208 −$208 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $81 +$46 +57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $706 +$420 +60%
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Se Jun 26 $77 +$44 +57%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame Jun 25 $76 +$42 +55%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald Jun 25 $225 +$128 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Jun 24 $1,870 +$1,136 +61%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $68 +$37 +55%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $201 +$115 +57%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $66 +$38 +57%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $65 +$40 +61%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $193 +$106 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $63 +$35 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $62 +$37 +60%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $62 +$35 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $182 +$99 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,209 −$2,209 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $114 +$32 +28%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$352 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,413 +$309 +22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $113 +$61 +55%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $331 +$180 +55%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $36 +$20 +55%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $36 +$20 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $105 +$60 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,167 +$264 +23%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $31 +$18 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $31 +$18 +60%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $30 +$17 +55%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Maria Sholokhova Jun 05 $90 +$54 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 64¢ $452 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 62¢ $151 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 64¢ $50 8h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 63¢ $81 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $706 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 64¢ $235 2d
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Cezar Cretu 64¢ $78 2d
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Se BUY Gen.G Global Academy 63¢ $77 2d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 64¢ $76 3d
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald BUY Cezar Cretu 63¢ $225 3d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY FlyQuest 62¢ $75 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 61¢ $1,870 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $623 5d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 63¢ $208 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $69 6d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $68 7d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $201 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ $67 9d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 63¢ $66 9d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 61¢ $65 10d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 64¢ $193 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 63¢ $64 10d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 64¢ $63 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $62 12d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 63¢ $62 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $182 13d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $61 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2,209 14d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 83¢ $146 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $204 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records