Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc17e…b39a other 1411 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-2%) realized −$330 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%442W / 963L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$460
sports 30% +$143
crypto 9% −$143
world 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -26.4% -33.4% 20% 19% -6.1%
≤30d 145 -28.6% -35.4% 17% 16% -7.4%
≤90d 1131 -29.4% -36.1% 24% 22% -16.7%
all 1405 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 29% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 27% -19.5%
15% -32.5% 24% -27.3%
20% -39.1% 20% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses442 / 963
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1405 / 1411
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 30¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-39%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 447 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $117 +$34 +29%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 +$44 +1082%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 −$75 -41%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 +$47 +373%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$34 -66%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $130 −$2 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$93 +46%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$18 +864%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$19 -19%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $36 3h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $61 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $55 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $105 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $181 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $56 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.33 · official $46.69 · 3500 history records