Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C1 0xc17e…2e7d crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+12%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 77% +9.2%
≤30d 13 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 77% +9.2%
≤90d 13 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 77% +9.2%
all 13 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 77% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 77% +9.2%
10% -0.4% 38% -1.3%
15% -10.0% 15% -10.8%
20% -18.8% 8% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 84¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $3.15 (match) · 27 history records