Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc17e…483f other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 30% −$11
tech 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% +$23
world 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -1.1% -10.5% 13% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage134d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $521 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $300 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $639 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $210 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $413 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $439 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $462 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 17 $405 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $432 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $439 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $467 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $442 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 40h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 42h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 47h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 47h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 23d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 23d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 23d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $196 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $196 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $175 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $175 27d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 28d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 28d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $216 28d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $216 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $210 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $210 30d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $185 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 342 history records