Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc181…6e97 crypto 1128 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$56,127 (-9%) realized −$56,127 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%648W / 478L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$7,400est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days−$1,638
14 days−$4,265
30 days−$9,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$63,920
other 8% +$5,838
crypto 2% −$601
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.3% -12.6% 48% 48% -14.8%
≤30d 139 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 45% -14.8%
≤90d 1126 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 46% -16.9%
all 1126 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 46% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 46% -16.9%
10% -23.6% 37% -24.9%
15% ← realistic here -30.9% 30% -32.1%
20% -37.7% 22% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$556 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56,127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses648 / 478
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$7,400
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1126 / 1128
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$533
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1126 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $989 +$638 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $501 −$492 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $581 −$572 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $561 +$1,086 +194%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $981 −$967 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $600 +$475 +79%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $498 −$490 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $598 +$556 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $749 −$739 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $509 +$719 +141%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $471 +$568 +121%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $507 +$472 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $584 −$576 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $944 −$931 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1,566 +$972 +62%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $913 +$646 +71%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $710 +$688 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 −$121 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $570 +$764 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $674 −$664 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $299 −$194 -65%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $570 −$271 -48%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $571 −$562 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $721 −$709 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $980 −$971 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,564 −$1,544 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $647 +$417 +64%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $992 −$980 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $594 +$552 +93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $494 −$486 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $892 +$1,016 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $621 +$766 +123%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $546 +$573 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $596 +$454 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $496 −$490 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $473 +$623 +132%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $569 +$404 +71%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $538 +$522 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $809 −$800 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $808 −$39 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $578 +$808 +140%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $911 −$900 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $938 +$552 +59%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $991 −$53 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $1,017 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,586 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1,011 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,628 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $989 7h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 41¢ $501 11h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 49¢ $581 16h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $561 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $981 32h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $1,075 34h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 55¢ $600 35h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $498 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 32¢ $556 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,154 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $598 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $749 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $1,228 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $509 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 61¢ $1,012 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $471 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $584 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $944 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $1,566 3d
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 100¢ $1,560 3d
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $913 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,399 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $710 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $122 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,000.00 · 3500 history records