Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc185…7a88 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,567 (-16%) realized −$2,542 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$2,579
crypto 38% −$14
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -0.5% -9.9% 97% 0% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -26.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -33.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -40.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2,579 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$2,573
Realized−$2,542
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage618d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $999 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $814 $811 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $185 $173 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $510 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $1,080 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Feb 18 $4 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 18 $8 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 29 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 29 $159 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $543 +$3 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,032 −$2,579 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $185 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $814 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $600 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,080 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $510 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 123d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 278d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 278d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 99¢ $2 278d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $2 278d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $2 278d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 278d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 278d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 99¢ $2 278d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se BUY No 99¢ $4 278d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem BUY No 100¢ $4 278d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,572.81 · official $2,572.81 (match) · 81 history records