Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc18e…b090 world 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,691 (+10%) realized +$2,635 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%76W / 63L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days+$195
14 days+$44
30 days+$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1,424
world 35% +$2,189
other 10% −$930
politics 1% +$122
tech 1% −$196
finance 1% −$9
sports 1% −$85
economics 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -32.1% -38.5% 53% 40% -3.3%
≤30d 27 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 48% +5.4%
≤90d 56 -15.2% -23.3% 55% 43% -2.7%
all 139 -5.9% -14.8% 55% 43% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 43% -0.6%
10% -23.0% 26% -10.1%
15% -30.4% 18% -18.8%
20% -37.2% 12% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$61 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized+$2,635
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses76 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)139 / 144
History coverage604d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 55¢ 68¢ $220 $274 +$54 (+25%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? No 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $44 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $87 +$13 +15%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $117 −$34 -29%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $85 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $85 +$15 +18%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 18 $1,514 +$351 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $130 +$9 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 16 $386 +$107 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $112 +$17 +15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $659 −$151 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 06 $71 −$6 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 03 $467 +$321 +69%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 03 $118 +$61 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 02 $154 +$25 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $65 +$29 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $214 −$211 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? May 26 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 26 $61 +$24 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 26 $683 +$542 +79%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 23 $320 +$123 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 21 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $950 +$54 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $156 −$23 -15%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $23 −$10 -46%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 03 $268 +$28 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 02 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $1,341 +$622 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 28 $270 +$28 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 19 $160 +$38 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 13 $120 −$54 -45%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $163 +$39 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $87 +$12 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 06 $80 −$2 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 06 $160 −$7 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 05 $60 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 89¢ $44 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 84¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $57 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $19 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 40¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 60¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 75¢ $8 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 78¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 78¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL No 84¢ $84 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL No 83¢ $83 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY No 73¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 84¢ $84 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 85¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 85¢ $48 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 85¢ $27 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 85¢ $6 28h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $88 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 85¢ $85 44h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 97¢ $32 44h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 97¢ $65 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $105 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $435 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.07 · official $443.17 (match) · 746 history records