Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc18e…38af crypto 423 markets active 4d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,093 (-1%) realized −$1,093 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%211W / 211L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$225
14 days+$2
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$411
other 14% +$1,879
sports 11% −$1,673
world 0% +$18
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.2% -3.0% 86% 71% -17.4%
≤30d 49 +81.6% +64.3% 73% 63% -20.7%
≤90d 377 +4.1% -5.8% 51% 41% -15.1%
all 422 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 39% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 39% -12.5%
10% -14.0% 31% -20.9%
15% -22.3% 23% -28.5%
20% -30.0% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$84 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,093
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses211 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 423
History coverage111d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $630 −$626 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $547 +$84 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $206 +$135 +66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $298 +$51 +17%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $354 +$7 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $319 +$35 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $225 +$89 +40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $204 +$22 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $185 +$18 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $168 +$18 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $148 +$20 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$27 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 +$18 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $85 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $94 −$32 -34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $91 +$26 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $84 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$55 -54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $88 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$53 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$27 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$4 -4%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,634 −$3,557 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,016 +$859 +85%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,131 +$642 +30%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,524 +$636 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,836 −$383 -21%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,626 +$423 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$30 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,524 +$747 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $183 +$50 +28%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zeal Jun 16 $30 +$2,607 +8730%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$25 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 01 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $630 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 89¢ $630 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $547 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $341 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $349 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 85¢ $298 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 85¢ $361 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 83¢ $354 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $354 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $319 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $225 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $204 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $185 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $186 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $168 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 88¢ $148 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $148 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $121 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $103 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $103 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $85 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $62 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $94 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $91 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $91 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $84 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 98¢ $84 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 87¢ $75 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2446 history records