Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc192…af06 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$225 (-5%) realized −$222 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$262
14 days+$277
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$277
tech 27% −$534
politics 18% −$11
world 7% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.3% +13.3% 100% 100% +13.3%
≤30d 2 +43.0% +29.4% 100% 100% +14.1%
≤90d 3 +32.4% +19.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
all 19 -14.1% -22.3% 63% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 53% -15.4%
10% -29.7% 32% -23.5%
15% -36.5% 21% -30.9%
20% -42.7% 11% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$136 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage373d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $301 $298 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,038 +$262 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $25 +$15 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 13 $361 −$345 -96%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec Nov 19 $355 +$35 +10%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 28 $549 −$90 -16%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 27 $102 +$44 +43%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 27 $34 +$3 +8%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 27 $150 +$36 +24%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Oct 15 $99 −$66 -66%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3? Sep 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 04 $200 +$74 +37%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 18 $279 −$269 -96%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 11 $150 +$131 +88%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 05 $384 +$45 +12%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jul 04 $229 +$40 +17%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jul 03 $99 +$16 +16%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 01 $49 −$49 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $104 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $96 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,044 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,038 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 74d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $23 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $2 116d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? SELL Yes $16 195d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec SELL No 57¢ $20 220d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec SELL No 57¢ $10 220d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 220d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 220d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec SELL No 57¢ $1 220d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec SELL No 57¢ $1 221d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 55¢ $187 221d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec SELL No 57¢ $1 221d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec SELL No 57¢ $177 221d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.32 · official $298.32 (match) · 89 history records