Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc194…27fc other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-9%) realized −$103 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$240
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$41
sports 7% −$79
world 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -66.9% -70.1% 25% 25% -65.2%
≤30d 10 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -20.5%
≤90d 10 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -20.5%
all 10 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 50% -20.5%
10% -38.6% 50% -28.1%
15% -44.5% 40% -35.0%
20% -50.0% 20% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$80 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage10d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $113 +$37 +32%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$57 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$76 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $154 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $113 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $65 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.54 · official $172.54 (match) · 24 history records