Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C1 0xc196…8c1e sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$408 (+6%) realized +$400 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%37W / 23L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$97
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$665
sports 40% −$265
crypto 5% −$18
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 +30.0% +17.6% 60% 60% -16.6%
≤90d 33 +10.4% -0.1% 58% 58% -14.1%
all 60 +15.4% +4.4% 62% 62% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 62% -3.6%
10% -5.6% 53% -12.8%
15% -14.7% 47% -21.3%
20% -23.1% 40% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$62 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,248
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses37 / 23
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage133d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $990 $980 −$10 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$66 +197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $205 −$203 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $153 +$188 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $159 −$158 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $141 +$18 +13%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $131 −$130 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 01 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 30 $50 +$23 +46%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $460 −$77 -17%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $159 +$28 +18%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 19 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $600 +$211 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $123 −$123 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 05 $30 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 05 $30 +$64 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 05 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $20 +$74 +369%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $100 +$105 +105%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $70 +$13 +19%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $500 +$57 +11%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs Mar 28 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $50 +$71 +143%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 23 $10 +$5 +49%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 23 $30 +$18 +61%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 23 $60 +$33 +55%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers Mar 22 $10 +$8 +84%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5) Mar 22 $10 +$10 +95%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 22 $56 +$42 +75%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 22 $56 +$45 +81%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 22 $55 +$46 +84%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $50 −$14 -27%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5) Mar 16 $17 +$18 +103%
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 14 $412 +$72 +17%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 14 $15 +$18 +117%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $898 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $98 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 52¢ $101 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 10d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $205 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $153 21d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $159 35d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $141 51d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $31 51d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 51¢ $53 52d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $15 56d
Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 58d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 59d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 51¢ $100 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $316 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $260 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $68 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 62d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $134 62d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $200 64d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 76¢ $100 64d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 74¢ $600 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,248.32 · official $1,248.47 (match) · 148 history records