Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc196…4af6 crypto 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-7%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%157W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$76
14 days−$68
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% −$119
other 29% −$25
world 11% −$4
crypto 11% $0
politics 10% −$5
sports 3% +$2
tech 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -6.6% -15.5% 8% 5% -15.7%
≤30d 171 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 23% -17.7%
≤90d 252 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 26% -17.5%
all 252 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 26% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 26% -17.5%
10% -18.6% 10% -25.4%
15% -26.5% 4% -32.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses157 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 254
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 29? Jun 22 $0 $0 +82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 22 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 22 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $94 −$4 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 22 $83 −$32 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 22 $3 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -17%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $86 −$4 -4%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 22 $8 $0 -4%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $40 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 22 $23 −$3 -14%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -14%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 -4%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $49 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 21 $17 $0 -3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $22 −$1 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $30 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 21 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -60%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -15%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -37%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 37m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 37m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $42 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 69¢ $14 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 70¢ $14 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 90¢ $90 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL No 57¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 89¢ $44 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 91¢ $46 2h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 71¢ $8 2h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 72¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL No 60¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $7 2h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 25¢ $5 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 28¢ $6 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 24¢ $12 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 25¢ $12 3h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? SELL No 40¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 690 history records