Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc197…eb61 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% $0
world 29% −$2
sports 28% −$14
economics 8% $0
politics 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 -0.8% -10.2% 24% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 49 -3.9% -13.0% 31% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage533d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $81 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $33 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $41 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $78 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $263 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $504 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $503 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Mar 03 $4 +$1 +32%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 14? Feb 13 $4 −$1 -22%
UC Riverside vs. UC Davis Feb 13 $8 −$6 -70%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31? Jan 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Jan 05 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $21 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $12 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $18 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $31 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $22 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $8 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $34 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $38 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $38 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $23 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records