Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc19d…7204 other 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,143 (+7%) realized +$4,110 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%85W / 114L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$621
7 days+$1,173
14 days+$234
30 days+$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$4,108
other 42% −$1,484
crypto 1% −$229
world 1% +$248
weather 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +55.9% +41.0% 52% 41% -0.9%
≤30d 59 +11.2% +0.6% 49% 44% -6.4%
≤90d 120 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 38% -12.0%
all 199 -2.7% -11.9% 43% 40% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 40% -4.9%
10% -20.4% 38% -14.0%
15% -28.1% 30% -22.3%
20% -35.1% 25% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$146 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1,783
Realized+$4,110
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses85 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions6
Markets (closed)199 / 205
History coverage109d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 60¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $250 $290 +$40 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $250 $271 +$21 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $250 $227 −$23 (-9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$138 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$100 -49%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$5 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 +$258 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $133 +$145 +110%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $234 +$151 +65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 +$421 +165%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,004 −$294 -15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,004 +$146 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$200 -65%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$731 +712%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$663 +1290%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $134 −$130 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $671 +$597 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $708 −$700 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2,005 +$169 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $123 +$8 +6%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$95 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $256 −$11 -4%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$33 +32%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $712 −$700 -98%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $514 +$149 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $404 +$205 +51%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $101 +$44 +44%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,244 +$509 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $504 4m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $304 21m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $203 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $387 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $208 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $102 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $31 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $306 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $102 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $204 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 91¢ $162 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $101 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $102 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $101 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $102 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 25¢ $31 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $202 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $255 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 80¢ $1,710 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2,004 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 46¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 85¢ $166 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,782.64 · official $1,783.26 (match) · 469 history records