Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1a0…4a06 weather 1207 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-4%) realized −$264 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%675W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$220
world 6% −$18
other 5% +$5
politics 4% −$18
crypto 2% −$1
sports 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$6
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -5.7% -14.6% 79% 39% -12.6%
≤30d 514 -9.0% -17.7% 68% 51% -17.5%
≤90d 1120 -4.9% -13.9% 58% 44% -14.4%
all 1186 -4.8% -13.9% 57% 43% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -14.0%
10% -22.1% 30% -22.3%
15% -29.7% 18% -29.8%
20% -36.6% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses675 / 511
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1186 / 1207
History coverage115d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? No 78¢ 77¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? No 73¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 77¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? No 89¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? No 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 94¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? No 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 75¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 82¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 73¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? No 77¢ 74¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? No 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 72¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? No 66¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 2¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 8¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.27 · official $53.27 (match) · 2701 history records