Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc1a5…f290 other 304 markets active 7h ago coverage 358d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 358d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67,161 (+3%) realized +$50,328 · open +$16,833
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate86%238W / 38L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$7,517per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$283,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,654
7 days+$5,654
14 days+$4,060
30 days−$1,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$37,359
crypto 41% +$27,373
finance 15% +$10,399
tech 1% +$310
sports 0% +$253
economics 0% +$36
politics 0% +$41
culture 0% +$9
world 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -4.4%
≤30d 11 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 46 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 15% -8.4%
all 276 +2.6% -7.2% 86% 13% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 13% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 5% -15.7%
15% -24.2% 3% -23.8%
20% -31.6% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$5,476) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$464 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$283,348
Realized+$50,328
Unrealized+$16,833
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses238 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions28
Markets (closed)276 / 304
History coverage358d ⚠
Avg bet$7,517
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $38,983 $43,653 +$4,670 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $39,707 $40,490 +$783 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $29,135 $29,025 −$111 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $19,094 $19,285 +$191 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $15,741 $16,499 +$758 (+5%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $13,357 $15,923 +$2,566 (+19%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $13,915 $15,863 +$1,948 (+14%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $14,572 $15,415 +$843 (+6%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $13,964 $14,862 +$897 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $12,202 $14,070 +$1,868 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $13,495 $14,038 +$544 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $13,428 $13,967 +$539 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $10,822 $11,083 +$261 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $5,136 $5,610 +$474 (+9%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,001 $4,109 +$108 (+3%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $3,084 $3,271 +$186 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $1,906 $2,068 +$162 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,329 $1,372 +$44 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,078 $1,128 +$50 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No 94¢ 96¢ $473 $484 +$12 (+2%)
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $272 $284 +$11 (+4%)
Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $210 $211 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $174 $188 +$14 (+8%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+21%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $152 $158 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 25 $1,954 +$164 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 24 $84,295 +$4,331 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 24 $13,787 +$1,159 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $8,057 −$1,594 -20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 11 $6,694 −$752 -11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 11 $2,325 −$1,598 -69%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 10 $5,288 +$206 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 06 $7,794 +$629 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $37,196 −$4,095 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,525 +$2 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 19 $5,277 +$227 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $173 +$147 +86%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? May 16 $19,955 +$581 +3%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5,333 +$98 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 14 $5,271 +$119 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $1,600 +$41 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $879 +$120 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 01 $594 −$144 -24%
Will Tesla dip to $285 in April? May 01 $988 +$123 +12%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 01 $1,100 +$95 +9%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in April? May 01 $2,089 +$133 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 30 $36,947 +$261 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 28 $784 +$30 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 28 $4,253 +$53 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 17 $1,577 −$379 -24%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? Apr 17 $2,184 +$18 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $89 −$2 -2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? Apr 16 $1,469 +$20 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Apr 14 $6,411 +$310 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 14 $876 +$11 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Apr 14 $1,059 +$42 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 14 $11,737 +$217 +2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? Apr 08 $2,921 +$2 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $1,111 +$33 +3%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $2B in 2026? Apr 04 $472 +$83 +18%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March? Apr 01 $100 +$11 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $125 +$15 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $580 +$14 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,101 +$29 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $6,342 +$139 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $2,418 +$182 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 01 $3,800 +$86 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1,400 −$851 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 30 $84,573 +$4,105 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $14,300 +$276 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 20 $32,286 +$1,262 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $42 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $149 +$73 +49%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Mar 15 $1,825 +$54 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,364 6h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,291 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,296 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $798 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $299 18h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,083 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4,643 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,301 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2,118 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $42,781 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $119 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $143 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $92 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $245 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8,109 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $108 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $141 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $108 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $132 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $141 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $108 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $140 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $108 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $106 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283,348.45 · official $283,348.22 (match) · 3500 history records