Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc1a7…70ac
crypto · 399 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$62 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses296 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)396 / 399
History coverage139d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 396 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$15
14 days−$33
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 45¢ 66¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+46%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 53¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Athletics 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 67¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $9 +$12 +129%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -15%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $6 +$9 +140%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $6 +$5 +89%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1AM ET May 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$26
politics 18% −$2
other 14% −$9
sports 12% −$24
world 7% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 62¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $9 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 33h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 47h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 67¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 83¢ $5 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $8 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $7 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $8 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $10 4d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 54¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $6 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $5 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $5 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 8d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Athletics 90¢ $10 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $9 9d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 44% -21.8%
≤30d 46 -8.6% -17.3% 74% 20% -15.8%
≤90d 233 -1.7% -11.0% 79% 4% -10.3%
all 396 -2.8% -12.1% 75% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -10.4%
10% -20.5% 2% -19.0%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.8%
20% -35.2% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.77 · official $29.77 (match) · 1843 history records