Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc1a7…34d6 sports 302 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,447 (-10%) realized −$1,276 · open −$171
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%125W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$65
14 days+$76
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$735
politics 25% −$260
sports 19% −$55
economics 10% −$241
world 4% −$28
tech 3% −$25
crypto 3% −$205
finance 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +55.0% +40.2% 61% 52% -5.2%
≤30d 56 +25.3% +13.4% 55% 46% -10.0%
≤90d 72 +9.6% -0.9% 50% 40% -12.8%
all 262 -7.2% -16.1% 48% 40% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 40% -18.8%
10% -24.1% 31% -26.6%
15% -31.4% 19% -33.7%
20% -38.1% 11% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized−$1,276
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses125 / 137
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions31
Markets (closed)262 / 302
History coverage373d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 78¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-6%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes $5 $13 +$8 (+152%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-50%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ $117 $1 −$116 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$8 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$30 +2906%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +107%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +38%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$32 +31%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 11 $454 −$9 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 09 $11 +$2 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $474 +$20 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $513 −$28 -6%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 05 $20 +$5 +23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $20 +$3 +13%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 05 $20 +$4 +21%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 05 $20 +$6 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $10 −$1 -6%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $20 +$10 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $40 +$19 +48%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 03 $414 −$54 -13%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $30 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $101 2h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $108 4h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 35h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 85¢ $20 35h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No $1 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $13 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 11¢ $9 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 3d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.07 · official $677.09 (match) · 754 history records