Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
C1 0xc1aa…b4be sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,966 (+16%) realized +$3,971 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$853
14 days+$2,833
30 days+$4,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$4,915
world 28% −$1,045
other 1% −$74
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +111.5% +91.3% 75% 67% +0.6%
≤30d 16 +93.7% +75.2% 81% 75% +18.6%
≤90d 32 +65.6% +49.8% 72% 53% +4.9%
all 32 +65.6% +49.8% 72% 53% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.8% 53% +4.9%
10% +35.5% 44% -5.1%
15% +22.4% 41% -14.3%
20% +10.4% 31% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$227 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized+$3,971
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage85d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card) Asu Almabayev 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 64¢ 52¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $631 +$76 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $101 +$71 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $203 +$10 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $51 +$15 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $3,017 +$688 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $3,137 −$170 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $203 +$156 +77%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $25 +$16 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $101 +$38 +37%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3,025 +$1,154 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,515 +$823 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $3,690 +$2,103 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $253 +$132 +52%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $25 +$44 +172%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $100 +$6 +6%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $100 +$14 +14%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $800 +$313 +39%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $10 +$90 +900%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $150 +$13 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $250 +$6 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $102 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 07 $500 −$500 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $4,990 +$112 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 89¢ $100 30m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 65¢ $101 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 82¢ $503 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Eric Nolan 21¢ $16 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 63¢ $79 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 35¢ $28 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 79¢ $101 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 58¢ $101 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 52¢ $64 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 39¢ $51 4h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 51¢ $101 4h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 47¢ $102 4h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $51 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 34¢ $51 6d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $3,017 6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 85¢ $2,009 6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Andre Fili 20¢ $130 6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 83¢ $402 6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 70¢ $504 6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 76¢ $222 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 63¢ $101 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 60¢ $51 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 43¢ $51 6d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 61¢ $25 6d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 93¢ $139 6d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 67¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $1,006 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 63¢ $1,011 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 76¢ $1,007 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 74¢ $1,008 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.09 · official $345.09 (match) · 169 history records