Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1ae…4e25 sports 112 markets active 6d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$522 (+19%) realized +$522 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%42W / 70L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$233
crypto 17% +$181
other 13% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.7% -22.8% 57% 29% -20.3%
≤30d 18 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 28% -41.2%
≤90d 18 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 28% -41.2%
all 112 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 36% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% +7.5%
10% -22.8% 36% -2.8%
15% -30.2% 35% -12.2%
20% -37.1% 34% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses42 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage135d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -51%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Carabobo FC vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score Feb 17 $100 −$100 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Platense: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Feb 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Independiente Medellín vs. Deportivo Pereira end in a draw? Feb 15 $48 +$142 +296%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score Feb 14 $120 +$135 +112%
Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Feb 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Córdoba CF vs. CD Leganés: Both Teams to Score Feb 14 $50 +$45 +90%
Elche CF vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $40 +$30 +75%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on February 9? Feb 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $23 +$42 +183%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $50 +$34 +68%
CA Belgrano vs. CA Banfield: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
CA River Plate vs. CA Tigre: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $92 +$117 +127%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 8 Feb 07 $17 +$71 +416%
CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 06 $16 +$14 +88%
Solana Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $20 +$115 +577%
CA Juventud vs. CD Universidad Católica: Both Teams to Score Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to Feb 06 $50 +$50 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on February 8? Feb 05 $30 +$31 +103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 8 Feb 05 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-02-04? Feb 05 $16 +$17 +108%
Will Atlético Nacional vs. América de Cali end in a draw? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 05 $50 +$47 +94%
CR Flamengo vs. SC Internacional: Both Teams to Score Feb 04 $9 +$9 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records