trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +26.4% | +14.3% | 67% | 67% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +26.4% | +14.3% | 67% | 67% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +26.4% | +14.3% | 67% | 67% | -9.7% |
| all | 17 | -19.3% | -27.0% | 41% | 29% | -14.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.0% | 29% | -14.2% |
| 10% | -34.0% | 24% | -22.4% |
| 15% | -40.3% | 18% | -29.9% |
| 20% | -46.2% | 12% | -36.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 36¢ | 23¢ | $6 | $4 | −$2 (-35%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 22 | $722 | −$5 | -1% |
| Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | Jun 22 | $2 | $0 | +24% |
| US government shutdown in 2025? | Jun 22 | $5 | +$3 | +56% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 20 | $1,166 | −$1 | -0% |
| MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? | Sep 20 | $3 | +$1 | +37% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Sep 20 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Tesla deliver 350000-375000 vehicles in Q2? | Jul 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | Feb 24 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | Feb 24 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? | Jan 24 | $181 | −$60 | -33% |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Jan 22 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? | Dec 21 | $12 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will another game win Game of the Year? | Nov 25 | $180 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 24 | $0 | $0 | +85% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Oct 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Jun 30 | $100 | −$29 | -30% |