Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc1b4…a38a
weather · 246 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$565 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$594 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$594
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses54 / 179
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)233 / 246
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 13 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$231
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 35¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$12 +40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $4 +$4 +107%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $4 +$6 +161%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $2 +$4 +223%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +11%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 11 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $36 −$5 -15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$4 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -90%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $3 −$2 -72%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $39 +$14 +36%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $20 +$2 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $4 −$3 -70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $9 −$7 -75%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $10 −$2 -19%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-8.5) Jun 07 $3 −$1 -30%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5) Jun 07 $3 −$2 -53%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $4 −$2 -48%
ITF Sumter: Reese Brantmeier vs Cadence Brace Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 20% −$55
weather 20% −$268
finance 19% −$130
other 13% −$137
politics 11% +$46
crypto 9% −$58
world 8% +$11
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 43h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $2 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $2 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $2 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $1 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 14¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $5 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 45¢ $4 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $2 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch BUY Yunchaokete Bu 85¢ $7 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 4d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -35.4% -41.5% 36% 36% -19.2%
≤30d 233 -53.5% -58.0% 23% 19% -38.2%
≤90d 233 -53.5% -58.0% 23% 19% -38.2%
all 233 -53.5% -58.0% 23% 19% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.0% 19% -38.2%
10% -62.0% 14% -44.1%
15% -65.6% 12% -49.5%
20% -69.0% 9% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.06 · official $48.06 (match) · 700 history records