Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1b5…f8eb crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-4%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 22% -12.3%
≤30d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 22% -12.3%
≤90d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 22% -12.3%
all 9 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 22% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 22% -12.3%
10% -21.5% 0% -20.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -28.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$100 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $142 +$25 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $41 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records