Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1b6…b07a other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+15%) realized +$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$312
14 days+$312
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$183
sports 15% +$78
politics 6% +$93
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 45% +2.5%
≤30d 38 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 45% +2.5%
≤90d 38 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 45% +2.5%
all 40 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 45% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 45% +3.1%
10% -15.0% 22% -6.7%
15% -23.2% 22% -15.8%
20% -30.8% 22% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$14 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage598d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $129 +$27 +21%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$4 -61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $362 +$39 +11%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $218 +$26 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $174 +$93 +54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$8 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $295 +$37 +13%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $66 −$35 -52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $219 +$40 +18%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$9 -36%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 +$102 +99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $167 −$62 -37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $112 +$21 +19%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $38 +$62 +164%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$9 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$21 +137%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$7 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 −$10 -37%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $39 −$36 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$16 -66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$7 +142%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +62%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $143 +$93 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 2h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $387 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $41 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $301 4h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 5h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 6h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $265 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records