trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 43% | 43% | -42.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 43% | 43% | -42.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -16.2% | -24.2% | 50% | 50% | -38.2% |
| all | 13 | -19.2% | -26.9% | 54% | 46% | -29.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.9% | 46% | -29.2% |
| 10% | -33.9% | 31% | -36.0% |
| 15% | -40.2% | 31% | -42.2% |
| 20% | -46.1% | 31% | -47.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $303 | −$300 | -99% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $101 | +$94 | +93% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $106 | +$61 | +57% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $122 | −$120 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $75 | −$75 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $102 | +$111 | +109% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Apr 30 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 02 | $100 | +$63 | +63% |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Feb 02 | $24 | −$24 | -99% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting | Feb 02 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 02 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Jan 19 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |